Tom Izzo's Been Frustrated

Tom Izzo must be pulling his hair out. His teams shoot the ball well, they crash the offensive glass, and (up until this past season), they get to the line and make FTs. But every year since its last Final Four appearance in 2004-05, Izzo's teams have also turned the ball over way too much, giving the ball away on 21.8% of their possessions. 2006-07 had to be especially frustrating because, without a ghastly 24.2 TO Rate, MSU probably would have been one of the top teams in the country. They shot well, rebounded, got to the line, and defended. But they ranked 301st (among 336 D1 teams that season) in TO Rate, and it cost them.

This has to be especially frustrating for Izzo because Michigan State runs a lot of set plays. It is not an improvisational offense. So you'd figure that careless mistakes wouldn't be made.

But I think the answer to MSU's turnover problems lies with shot selection, rather than careless play.



We can see a downward trend for TO Rate as the number of 3PA/FGA (as a percentage) increases for all of Division I teams in 2007-08. Note, there are several exceptions to this, but the trend overall is clear. Shoot more 3s, decrease TOs. The theory I have for this trend isn't too controversial. Things are crowded in the paint, and they're more open on the perimeter. Furthermore, usually it's the better ballhandlers that hang out on the perimeter. The fact that more 3s are being taken suggests that the ball is on the perimeter more often with respect to these teams.

MSU in particular shows a similar trend. The last time that the Spartans had a TO Rate under 20.0 was also the last time they had a 3PA/FGA above 30%. It was also the last time MSU went to the Final Four.

Of course, being a POT has its downsides as well.




Generally, it means less offensive rebounds, and less trips to the free throw line. Some teams make that work (like Butler), but there are plenty of counterexamples at the other end of the spectrum (like UNC).

The real trick is having talent that overcomes the built-in disadvantages of a given offense. UNC might never shoot any 3s, but they also have excellent ballhandlers who don't give away possessions. Drake devoted over 45% of its field goal attempts to 3 pointers, but they also have capable offensive rebounders.

So what should Tom Izzo do? Well, maybe nothing, now that he has Kalin Lucas. As the season progressed, Lucas saw more playing time for the Spartans, replacing many of Travis Walton's minutes, and consequently replacing Walton's unsightly 31.3 TO Rate with Lucas' 19.8. But Izzo will have to figure out how to replace Drew Neitzel's minutes, who was as trustworthy with the ball as they come. Whether those minutes go to Walton, Chris Allen (17.0 TO Rate), or Durrell Summers (21.3) might determine whether the Spartans go on another deep tourney run. If the Spartans are giving away possessions next year, however, Izzo might be well-served to encourage his team to keep it out on the perimeter more. Marginal utility instructs us that the gains made in TO Rate will likely offset the losses in offensive rebounding and free throws. It worked in 2004-05, and it can work again.